Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UMES +200 NCCU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +8 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -5.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -5.2 (-2.8) | 134.0 (-12.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -6.5 (-1.5) | 134.0 (-12.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -4.8 (-3.2) | 134.6 (-12.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -5.0 (-3.0) | 135.1 (-13.1) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | NCCU 83 – 76 UMES |
| Mar 3, 2026 | NCCU 77 – 73 UMES |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NCCU 65 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UMES 68 – 59 NCCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NCCU 88 – 69 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 9-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 0-15 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -14.2 (#346) | -5.0 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#346) | -0.76 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.27 (#349) | -0.95 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#356) | 0.465 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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