Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU +110 UMES -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +7 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UMES -1.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -0.5 (+7.5) | 131.4 (+27.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -0.7 (+7.7) | 129.5 (+29.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -1.2 (+8.2) | 131.5 (+27.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -1.9 (+8.9) | 131.2 (+27.8) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | NCCU 77 – 73 UMES |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NCCU 65 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UMES 68 – 59 NCCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NCCU 88 – 69 UMES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCCU 87 – 81 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 5-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -15.7 (#350) | -14.0 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#344) | -2.77 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.15 (#349) | -3.45 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#294) | 0.398 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 61.0% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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