Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -500 UMES +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +6 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -10.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+33.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -9.9 (-3.9) | 135.6 (+32.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -8.8 (-2.8) | 136.7 (+31.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -9.9 (-3.9) | 136.6 (+31.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -9.9 (-3.9) | 135.1 (+32.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | NCCU 83 – 76 UMES |
| Mar 3, 2026 | NCCU 77 – 73 UMES |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NCCU 65 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UMES 68 – 59 NCCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NCCU 88 – 69 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 4-10 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#246) | -14.6 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#271) | -2.40 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#263) | -2.78 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#263) | 0.379 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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