Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UMES +250 NCCU -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +9 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -6.8 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -7.5 (+16.5) | 141.9 (-14.9) | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -6.7 (+15.7) | 139.1 (-12.1) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -6.5 (+15.5) | 140.5 (-13.5) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -7.3 (+16.3) | 142.1 (-15.1) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | NCCU 83 – 76 UMES |
| Mar 3, 2026 | NCCU 77 – 73 UMES |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NCCU 65 – 63 UMES |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NCCU 88 – 69 UMES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCCU 87 – 81 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 6-8 |
| Home | 5-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-17 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -18.8 (#362) | -8.8 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.94 (#364) | -1.82 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.43 (#364) | -2.59 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.357 (#361) | 0.427 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 60.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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