Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | NCCU -166 UMES +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +2 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -0.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -0.6 (+2.6) | 132.1 (-4.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -0.6 (+1.4) | 131.8 (-3.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -0.6 (+2.6) | 133.1 (-5.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -1.7 (+3.7) | 134.5 (-6.5) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | NCCU 83 – 76 UMES |
| Mar 3, 2026 | NCCU 77 – 73 UMES |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UMES 68 – 59 NCCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NCCU 88 – 69 UMES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCCU 87 – 81 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 5-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#345) | -11.6 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#341) | -1.94 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.06 (#345) | -2.78 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#302) | 0.427 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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