Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -700 UMES +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +19 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -11.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -9.3 (+9.7) | 145.9 (+11.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -10.3 (+8.7) | 143.2 (+13.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -9.2 (+9.8) | 147.2 (+9.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -8.8 (+10.2) | 148.0 (+9.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | NCCU 83 – 76 UMES |
| Mar 3, 2026 | NCCU 77 – 73 UMES |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NCCU 65 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UMES 68 – 59 NCCU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCCU 87 – 81 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 2-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#312) | -16.1 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#323) | -3.89 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#331) | -5.26 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#322) | 0.400 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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