Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UMES -142 NCCU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | UMES -4.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -2.4 (-6.4) | 134.5 (+15.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -2.1 (-6.1) | 132.6 (+17.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -2.6 (-6.6) | 132.6 (+17.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -3.3 (-7.3) | 132.9 (+17.1) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | NCCU 83 – 76 UMES |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NCCU 65 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UMES 68 – 59 NCCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NCCU 88 – 69 UMES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCCU 87 – 81 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-18 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#342) | -15.0 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#348) | -2.24 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.27 (#352) | -2.99 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#344) | 0.439 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 61.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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