Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -150 STAN +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -0.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -0.5 (+1.5) | 154.3 (-10.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -0.9 (+1.1) | 152.6 (-8.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -0.6 (+1.4) | 154.0 (-10.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -0.9 (+1.1) | 155.5 (-11.5) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#133) | 5.4 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#188) | 0.78 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#152) | 1.07 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#184) | 0.528 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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