Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -300 CAL +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -6.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -5.3 (-0.3) | 148.9 (-21.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -5.2 (-0.2) | 145.8 (-18.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -5.5 (-0.5) | 147.5 (-20.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -5.3 (-0.3) | 148.2 (-21.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
| Mar 14, 2024 | STAN 87 – 76 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 17-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#88) | 3.2 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#72) | 0.33 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#88) | 0.53 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#78) | 0.498 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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