Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -300 CAL +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -2.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -3.0 (+2.0) | 142.7 (+8.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -3.5 (+1.5) | 143.7 (+7.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -3.3 (+1.7) | 142.9 (+8.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -3.3 (+1.7) | 142.9 (+8.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
| Mar 14, 2024 | STAN 87 – 76 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 17-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#85) | 3.7 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#73) | 0.31 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#83) | 0.55 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#79) | 0.492 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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