Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -130 STAN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +8 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -4.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -4.8 (-12.8) | 151.3 (+18.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -2.1 (-10.1) | 147.8 (+22.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -4.1 (-12.1) | 149.4 (+20.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -3.8 (-11.8) | 150.3 (+19.7) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Mar 14, 2024 | STAN 87 – 76 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 17-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#88) | 5.9 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#53) | 1.22 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#58) | 1.18 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#65) | 0.540 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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