Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -205 CAL +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +12 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -2.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -4.1 (-16.1) | 142.7 (+1.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -2.9 (-14.9) | 141.7 (+2.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -3.3 (-15.3) | 140.9 (+3.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -2.8 (-14.8) | 143.0 (+1.0) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
| Mar 14, 2024 | STAN 87 – 76 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 17-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#73) | 9.5 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#36) | 2.10 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#45) | 2.63 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#31) | 0.573 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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