Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -125 STAN +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -3.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -4.0 (+2.0) | 146.3 (-8.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -3.0 (+3.0) | 146.6 (-8.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -3.7 (+2.3) | 146.6 (-8.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -3.9 (+2.1) | 147.3 (-9.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
| Mar 14, 2024 | STAN 87 – 76 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-5 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#63) | 8.7 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#50) | 1.63 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#55) | 1.87 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#57) | 0.567 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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