I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
Matthew Knight Arena · January 27, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ARIZ -3.5 Away covered
O/U 157.5 Over
Money ORE +145 / ARIZ -188
Model Predictions
Spread Total ORE win
Actual ARIZ +9 165 Lost
Massey ARIZ -9.3 (+0.3)
Massey Totals 161.9 (+3.1)
Bradley-Terry 59%
Weighted B-T 44%
Baseline Plus ML ARIZ -5.4 (-3.6) 161.0 (+4.0) 26%
Model 4 ML ARIZ -5.3 (-3.7) 158.5 (+6.5) 29%
Model 3 ML ARIZ -4.0 (-5.0) 159.7 (+5.3) 31%
Baseline ML ARIZ -4.1 (-4.9) 160.4 (+4.6) 29%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 24, 2025 ARIZ 8783 ORE
Mar 16, 2024 ORE 6759 ARIZ
Mar 2, 2024 ARIZ 10383 ORE
Feb 3, 2023 ARIZ 9176 ORE
Jan 14, 2023 ORE 8768 ARIZ

Game Analysis

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