Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -138 UCSD +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +33 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -2.1 (-35.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -0.6 (-33.6) | 139.9 (+11.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -1.8 (-34.8) | 138.3 (+12.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -1.5 (-34.5) | 137.7 (+13.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.8 (-33.8) | 139.4 (+11.6) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSD 68 – 51 UCD |
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSD 80 – 74 UCD |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCSD 68 – 57 UCD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCSD 85 – 60 UCD |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCD 70 – 63 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#144) | 3.2 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#157) | 0.32 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#164) | 0.56 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#192) | 0.508 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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