Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -1800 UCD +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +25 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -18.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -16.6 (+8.4) | 134.8 (+10.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -14.7 (+10.3) | 134.2 (+10.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -15.6 (+9.4) | 134.6 (+10.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -15.7 (+9.3) | 135.8 (+9.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSD 68 – 51 UCD |
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSD 80 – 74 UCD |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCSD 68 – 57 UCD |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCD 70 – 63 UCSD |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UCSD 92 – 59 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 12-2 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#48) | -3.2 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#41) | 0.39 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#51) | -0.07 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#52) | 0.529 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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