Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UCD +105 UCSD -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -2.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -1.6 (-4.4) | 149.6 (+4.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -2.8 (-3.2) | 149.1 (+4.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -1.5 (-4.5) | 149.0 (+5.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -1.8 (-4.2) | 150.2 (+3.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSD 68 – 51 UCD |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCSD 68 – 57 UCD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCSD 85 – 60 UCD |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCD 70 – 63 UCSD |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UCSD 92 – 59 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#175) | 5.0 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#134) | 0.86 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#121) | 1.15 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#142) | 0.542 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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