Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -258 UCD +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +17 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -6.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -7.9 (+9.1) | 144.5 (-25.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -4.6 (+12.4) | 141.5 (-22.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -4.6 (+12.4) | 140.9 (-21.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -4.8 (+12.2) | 142.6 (-23.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSD 80 – 74 UCD |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCSD 68 – 57 UCD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCSD 85 – 60 UCD |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCD 70 – 63 UCSD |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UCSD 92 – 59 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#123) | -0.8 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#130) | 0.32 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#121) | 0.48 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#126) | 0.517 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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