Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | CCSU -275 WAG +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +1 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -8.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -5.5 (-4.5) | 129.0 (+8.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -6.1 (-5.1) | 129.1 (+7.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -6.3 (-5.3) | 128.2 (+8.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -5.8 (-4.8) | 129.7 (+7.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | WAG 70 – 60 CCSU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | CCSU 84 – 67 WAG |
| Jan 30, 2026 | CCSU 62 – 55 WAG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CCSU 55 – 48 WAG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAG 62 – 57 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 64.1 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#209) | -7.8 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#230) | -1.18 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#235) | -1.89 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#238) | 0.432 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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