Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -400 UTU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +18 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -9.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -7.8 (+10.2) | 138.9 (+15.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -6.5 (+11.5) | 140.7 (+13.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -6.8 (+11.2) | 141.3 (+12.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -7.7 (+10.3) | 140.3 (+13.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTU 80 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTU 65 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UTU 75 – 71 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TAR 61 – 54 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTU 58 – 54 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#192) | -6.6 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#137) | -0.71 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#144) | -0.86 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#121) | 0.468 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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