Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -122 UTU +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +6 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -4.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-35.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -2.1 (-8.1) | 152.9 (-28.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -3.7 (-9.7) | 150.4 (-26.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -2.3 (-8.3) | 149.4 (-25.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -2.4 (-8.4) | 151.8 (-27.8) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTU 80 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UTU 75 – 71 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TAR 61 – 54 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTU 58 – 54 TAR |
| Mar 1, 2024 | TAR 85 – 74 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#191) | -2.6 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#190) | -0.02 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#154) | -0.05 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#221) | 0.510 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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