Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UTU +155 TAR -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -4.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -5.0 (-6.0) | 144.5 (+14.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TAR -3.7 (-7.3) | 144.1 (+14.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TAR -4.6 (-6.4) | 142.7 (+16.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -4.7 (-6.3) | 143.5 (+15.5) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTU 80 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTU 65 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UTU 75 – 71 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TAR 61 – 54 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTU 58 – 54 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 16-4 |
| Home | 6-7 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-13 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#276) | 1.6 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#257) | 1.25 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#256) | 1.32 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#266) | 0.561 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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