Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -125 UTU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -2.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -0.8 (-8.8) | 141.4 (+10.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -1.9 (-9.9) | 142.6 (+9.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -1.1 (-9.1) | 140.8 (+11.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -1.3 (-9.3) | 141.6 (+10.4) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTU 65 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UTU 75 – 71 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TAR 61 – 54 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTU 58 – 54 TAR |
| Mar 1, 2024 | TAR 85 – 74 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#210) | -1.8 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#178) | 0.46 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#167) | 0.46 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#233) | 0.525 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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