Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -250 UTU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +7 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -2.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -0.2 (+6.8) | 133.8 (-18.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -1.5 (+5.5) | 131.2 (-16.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -1.0 (+6.0) | 131.1 (-16.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -1.0 (+6.0) | 132.3 (-17.3) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTU 80 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTU 65 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UTU 75 – 71 TAR |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTU 58 – 54 TAR |
| Mar 1, 2024 | TAR 85 – 74 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 7-26 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 2-14 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 1-14 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.2 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#317) | -8.4 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#257) | -1.50 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#273) | -1.73 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#262) | 0.420 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 27.8 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 26.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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