Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UTU -162 TAR +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -0.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -0.1 (+3.9) | 149.1 (-3.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -0.2 (+3.8) | 147.4 (-1.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -0.9 (+3.1) | 149.5 (-3.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -0.3 (+3.7) | 149.7 (-3.7) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTU 80 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTU 65 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TAR 61 – 54 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTU 58 – 54 TAR |
| Mar 1, 2024 | TAR 85 – 74 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#212) | 0.3 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#197) | 0.31 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#195) | 0.80 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#181) | 0.509 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 35.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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