Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UTU -130 TAR +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +4 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -6.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -4.9 (-0.9) | 134.3 (-22.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -2.7 (+1.3) | 133.8 (-21.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -2.9 (+1.1) | 132.6 (-20.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -3.2 (+0.8) | 134.4 (-22.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTU 80 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTU 65 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UTU 75 – 71 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TAR 61 – 54 UTU |
| Mar 1, 2024 | TAR 85 – 74 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-26 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 7-9 |
| Home | 5-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 0-16 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 60.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#289) | -9.6 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#309) | -0.71 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#301) | -1.34 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#319) | 0.479 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 27.0% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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