Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -154 JOES +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +19 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -3.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -3.1 (+15.9) | 139.2 (+23.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -2.9 (+16.1) | 139.7 (+23.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -2.7 (+16.3) | 139.4 (+23.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -2.6 (+16.4) | 140.8 (+22.2) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | JOES 71 – 65 SBU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | JOES 68 – 64 SBU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JOES 75 – 64 SBU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SBU 89 – 76 JOES |
| Feb 26, 2022 | SBU 54 – 52 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#80) | 7.5 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#125) | 0.92 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#125) | 1.27 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#118) | 0.539 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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