Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -188 JOES +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +13 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -4.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -3.8 (+9.2) | 140.5 (+24.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -2.9 (+10.1) | 140.5 (+24.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -2.9 (+10.1) | 141.8 (+23.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -3.1 (+9.9) | 141.9 (+23.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | JOES 71 – 65 SBU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | JOES 68 – 64 SBU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JOES 75 – 64 SBU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SBU 91 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 26, 2022 | SBU 54 – 52 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#193) | -1.5 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#201) | -0.35 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#183) | -0.43 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#197) | 0.488 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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