Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -275 SBU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -5.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -5.7 (+5.3) | 133.4 (+5.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -5.7 (+5.3) | 134.2 (+4.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -6.4 (+4.6) | 131.2 (+7.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -6.1 (+4.9) | 132.8 (+6.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | JOES 71 – 65 SBU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | JOES 68 – 64 SBU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SBU 91 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SBU 89 – 76 JOES |
| Feb 26, 2022 | SBU 54 – 52 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#81) | 4.6 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#105) | 0.95 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#95) | 1.28 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#89) | 0.555 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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