Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SBU -218 JOES +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +6 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -4.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -4.0 (-10.0) | 142.4 (-6.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -3.9 (-9.9) | 142.7 (-6.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -4.3 (-10.3) | 141.0 (-5.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -3.9 (-9.9) | 141.2 (-5.2) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | JOES 68 – 64 SBU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JOES 75 – 64 SBU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SBU 91 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SBU 89 – 76 JOES |
| Feb 26, 2022 | SBU 54 – 52 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#145) | -0.3 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#149) | 0.39 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#137) | 0.29 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#109) | 0.525 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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