Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | JOES +250 SBU -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +2 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -3.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-35.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -4.0 (+2.0) | 139.7 (-33.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -3.8 (+1.8) | 142.3 (-36.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -3.9 (+1.9) | 142.6 (-36.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -4.1 (+2.1) | 142.5 (-36.5) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | JOES 71 – 65 SBU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | JOES 68 – 64 SBU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JOES 75 – 64 SBU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SBU 91 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SBU 89 – 76 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#150) | 7.2 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#199) | 1.67 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#186) | 1.83 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#214) | 0.581 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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