Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | JOES +105 SBU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -2.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -2.2 (+6.2) | 148.5 (-16.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -1.6 (+5.6) | 146.7 (-14.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -1.7 (+5.7) | 146.9 (-14.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -2.3 (+6.3) | 146.9 (-14.9) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | JOES 71 – 65 SBU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JOES 75 – 64 SBU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SBU 91 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SBU 89 – 76 JOES |
| Feb 26, 2022 | SBU 54 – 52 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#233) | 2.2 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#181) | 0.83 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#212) | 1.05 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#176) | 0.564 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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