Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -188 PITT +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -3.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -4.1 (-0.1) | 144.2 (-4.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -4.1 (-0.1) | 143.4 (-3.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -3.9 (+0.1) | 143.3 (-3.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -3.8 (+0.2) | 144.5 (-4.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | MIA 76 – 69 PITT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PITT 74 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIA 78 – 76 PITT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | PITT 71 – 68 MIA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | MIA 85 – 64 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#52) | 10.0 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#60) | 1.04 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#61) | 1.34 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#76) | 0.522 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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