Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -900 MIA +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -16.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -13.0 (-4.0) | 149.5 (-10.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -14.1 (-5.1) | 154.2 (-15.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -13.9 (-4.9) | 154.6 (-15.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -14.2 (-5.2) | 153.6 (-14.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | MIA 76 – 69 PITT |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MIA 72 – 68 PITT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIA 78 – 76 PITT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | PITT 71 – 68 MIA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | MIA 85 – 64 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-10 |
| Away | 3-9 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#43) | -0.8 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#56) | -1.05 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#61) | -0.97 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#54) | 0.451 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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