Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +21 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -4.8 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -4.9 (-16.1) | 136.2 (+12.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -2.7 (-18.3) | 135.3 (+13.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -4.3 (-16.7) | 136.5 (+12.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -3.8 (-17.2) | 137.1 (+11.9) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | MIA 76 – 69 PITT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PITT 74 – 65 MIA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MIA 72 – 68 PITT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIA 78 – 76 PITT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | PITT 71 – 68 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-11 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#161) | 7.6 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#161) | 1.87 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#162) | 2.28 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#201) | 0.579 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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