Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -111 MIA -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -0.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -1.6 (+1.4) | 147.7 (-8.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -0.2 (+2.8) | 146.7 (-7.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -1.6 (+1.4) | 147.8 (-8.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -1.6 (+1.4) | 149.0 (-10.0) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | MIA 76 – 69 PITT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PITT 74 – 65 MIA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MIA 72 – 68 PITT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIA 78 – 76 PITT |
| Feb 23, 2022 | MIA 85 – 64 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#73) | 10.0 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#56) | 2.38 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#56) | 2.82 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#62) | 0.606 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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