Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -5.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -7.1 (-5.1) | 155.1 (-1.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -6.9 (-4.9) | 156.2 (-2.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -5.9 (-3.9) | 156.6 (-2.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -6.3 (-4.3) | 155.9 (-1.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | MIA 76 – 69 PITT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PITT 74 – 65 MIA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MIA 72 – 68 PITT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | PITT 71 – 68 MIA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | MIA 85 – 64 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#42) | 8.3 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#18) | 1.71 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#14) | 2.03 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#18) | 0.575 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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