Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -535 PITT +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -14.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -11.5 (-4.5) | 142.9 (+2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -8.5 (-1.5) | 143.2 (+1.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -12.5 (-5.5) | 145.0 (-0.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -11.0 (-4.0) | 145.4 (-0.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2025 | PITT 74 – 65 MIA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MIA 72 – 68 PITT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIA 78 – 76 PITT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | PITT 71 – 68 MIA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | MIA 85 – 64 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#31) | 5.6 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#50) | 0.39 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#44) | 0.32 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#96) | 0.522 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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