Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -600 CIT +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +28 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -7.3 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -7.5 (+20.5) | 140.6 (+11.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -7.9 (+20.1) | 139.3 (+12.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -7.2 (+20.8) | 139.5 (+12.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -7.4 (+20.6) | 139.8 (+12.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CIT 88 – 85 UTC |
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTC 93 – 72 CIT |
| Feb 7, 2026 | CIT 78 – 71 UTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UTC 76 – 75 CIT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTC 81 – 68 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#157) | -3.0 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#141) | -1.03 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#153) | -1.11 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#173) | 0.443 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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