Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -5000 CIT +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -21.2 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -15.4 (-14.4) | 144.4 (+6.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -15.9 (-14.9) | 145.0 (+6.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -16.2 (-15.2) | 143.3 (+7.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -16.3 (-15.3) | 146.3 (+4.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CIT 88 – 85 UTC |
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTC 93 – 72 CIT |
| Feb 7, 2026 | CIT 78 – 71 UTC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTC 81 – 68 CIT |
| Feb 24, 2024 | CIT 71 – 62 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 0-18 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-12 |
| Away | 12-5 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W5 | L24 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#124) | -15.8 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#105) | -3.97 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#108) | -4.35 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#88) | 0.350 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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