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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–19 on winners
spread MAE 9.7
48 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+24.4 | 147.3 | 91% | 62–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 140.2 | 46% | 71–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 143.2 | 67% | 65–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 133.9 | 73% | 57–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 135.4 | 51% | 70–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 137.7 | 82% | 70–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.2 | 148.8 | 69% | 76–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.9 | 146.3 | 63% | 75–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.0 | 140.7 | 73% | 64–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 158.5 | 72% | 84–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 139.2 | 49% | 67–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 141.7 | 58% | 91–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 135.1 | 71% | 65–50 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.1 | 146.8 | 48% | 85–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.0 | 158.9 | 87% | 88–109 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.1 | 152.9 | 29% | 84–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 138.8 | 52% | 63–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-14.1 | 148.5 | 15% | 76–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 149.7 | 65% | 69–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.2 | 150.4 | 69% | 57–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 152.6 | 50% | 82–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 139.5 | 84% | 74–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.4 | 142.2 | 68% | 71–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.6 | 140.8 | 60% | 58–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 148.6 | 44% | 77–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 131.0 | 56% | 50–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.8 | 140.1 | 20% | 70–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 138.3 | 85% | 74–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.7 | 156.2 | 45% | 73–98 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.1 | 130.6 | 87% | 65–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-18.8 | 149.8 | 11% | 82–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 141.7 | 88% | 72–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 127.3 | 82% | 73–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 145.8 | 84% | 56–99 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.1 | 157.6 | 13% | 83–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.9 | 141.7 | 16% | 68–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 136.0 | 77% | 63–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 131.0 | 63% | 80–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.8 | 155.0 | 77% | 64–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 141.2 | 82% | 46–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 144.5 | 80% | 52–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.2 | 126.9 | 14% | 63–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 147.6 | 80% | 84–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 152.3 | 60% | 66–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.7 | 145.2 | 38% | 82–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.7 | 141.8 | 24% | 72–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.9 | 156.2 | 39% | 88–97 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 134.1 | 72% | 64–70 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.