Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -300 UCF +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +11 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -7.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -6.0 (+5.0) | 137.6 (-12.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -5.1 (+5.9) | 135.6 (-10.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -5.1 (+5.9) | 133.9 (-8.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -5.4 (+5.6) | 139.1 (-14.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UCF 66 – 65 CIN |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CIN 92 – 72 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCF 73 – 72 CIN |
| Apr 3, 2025 | UCF 88 – 80 CIN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CIN 93 – 83 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-5 | 11-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#25) | 9.4 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#67) | 1.48 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#43) | 1.82 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#73) | 0.565 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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