Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -300 UCF +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +8 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -4.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -3.6 (-11.6) | 147.6 (+20.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -2.8 (-10.8) | 146.3 (+21.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -3.1 (-11.1) | 144.2 (+23.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -2.8 (-10.8) | 147.8 (+20.2) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UCF 66 – 65 CIN |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CIN 92 – 72 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCF 73 – 72 CIN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CIN 93 – 83 UCF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CIN 76 – 74 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#43) | 7.5 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#59) | 1.53 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#60) | 1.71 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#99) | 0.537 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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