Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -115 CIN -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -0.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -0.7 (-2.7) | 137.4 (+12.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -0.2 (-2.2) | 138.4 (+11.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -1.1 (-3.1) | 135.7 (+14.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -0.8 (-2.8) | 136.4 (+13.6) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UCF 66 – 65 CIN |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CIN 92 – 72 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCF 73 – 72 CIN |
| Apr 3, 2025 | UCF 88 – 80 CIN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CIN 93 – 83 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-8 | 16-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#55) | 13.2 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#90) | 1.50 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#83) | 2.10 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#98) | 0.569 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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