Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +130 CIN -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -2.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -0.2 (+0.8) | 144.9 (-13.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -1.0 (+2.0) | 147.0 (-16.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -2.1 (+3.1) | 146.6 (-15.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -0.8 (+1.8) | 147.3 (-16.3) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | CIN 92 – 72 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCF 73 – 72 CIN |
| Apr 3, 2025 | UCF 88 – 80 CIN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CIN 93 – 83 UCF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CIN 76 – 74 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#56) | 12.9 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#33) | 1.89 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#36) | 2.78 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#40) | 0.551 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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