Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -192 UCF +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +20 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -0.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -0.6 (+19.4) | 141.7 (+22.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -1.4 (+18.6) | 139.7 (+24.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -0.2 (+20.2) | 137.2 (+26.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -0.2 (+19.8) | 138.1 (+25.9) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UCF 66 – 65 CIN |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCF 73 – 72 CIN |
| Apr 3, 2025 | UCF 88 – 80 CIN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CIN 93 – 83 UCF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CIN 76 – 74 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#65) | 11.5 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#88) | 3.29 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#75) | 3.99 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#127) | 0.629 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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