Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -165 CIN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +10 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -0.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -1.7 (-11.7) | 142.8 (+33.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.4 (-12.4) | 144.6 (+31.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -2.5 (-12.5) | 142.8 (+33.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -2.5 (-12.5) | 143.4 (+32.6) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UCF 66 – 65 CIN |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CIN 92 – 72 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCF 73 – 72 CIN |
| Apr 3, 2025 | UCF 88 – 80 CIN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CIN 76 – 74 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-5 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#70) | 11.0 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#47) | 1.22 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#51) | 1.64 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#45) | 0.532 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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