Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -142 CIN +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -7.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -7.7 (-6.7) | 143.3 (+1.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -6.7 (-5.7) | 140.8 (+4.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -7.4 (-6.4) | 141.9 (+3.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -6.2 (-5.2) | 147.7 (-2.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UCF 66 – 65 CIN |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CIN 92 – 72 UCF |
| Apr 3, 2025 | UCF 88 – 80 CIN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CIN 93 – 83 UCF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CIN 76 – 74 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#43) | 8.6 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#16) | 0.40 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.20 (#19) | 0.90 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#19) | 0.505 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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