Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -450 MAN +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +6 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | NIA -10.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -10.6 (-16.6) | 148.6 (+13.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -7.8 (-13.8) | 147.5 (+14.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -9.6 (-15.6) | 146.1 (+15.9) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -9.2 (-15.2) | 147.6 (+14.4) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MAN 76 – 69 NIA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MAN 79 – 70 NIA |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MAN 85 – 70 NIA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MAN 72 – 65 NIA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | NIA 81 – 67 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 5-9 | 3-10 |
| Away | 10-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#265) | -12.3 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#255) | -2.04 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#266) | -3.15 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#261) | 0.431 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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