Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MAN +138 NIA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +14 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -3.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -0.9 (-14.9) | 143.6 (+4.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -1.7 (-15.7) | 140.8 (+7.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -2.4 (-16.4) | 143.2 (+4.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -1.9 (-15.9) | 143.1 (+4.9) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MAN 76 – 69 NIA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MAN 79 – 70 NIA |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MAN 85 – 70 NIA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MAN 72 – 65 NIA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MAN 84 – 78 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 11-9 |
| Home | 3-10 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-12 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#321) | -8.9 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#261) | -1.70 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#310) | -2.24 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#226) | 0.415 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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